U.S. Energy Independence By 2020?
Analysts at Raymond James today released a report outlining how the U.S. could become energy independent by as early as 2020 due to growth in domestic supply in addition to gasoline demand that has been in decline since prices spiked in 2008.
According to Ramond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, “We think there will be a disconnect in the price of U.S. (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices and world oil prices (Brent) similar to the current situation in Natural Gas”. One company mentioned in Pavel’s segment on CNBC was Chevron (CVX) but this will also give many industries in the United States a competitive advantage over the coming years which could also revitalize the U.S. industrial sector.
This Citi report is similar to a report I found on Motley Fool that was published in late March. Citi analysts had a similar take on the potential for Canadian Oil Sands, the Bakken Oil Field as well as a revitalization of drilling in the Gulf Of Mexico. Today we import 50% of our daily crude oil consumption and moth reports indicate that this could drop to 25% by the end of 2015 and to 0 by the end of the decade.
As far as oil and gas companies that may benefit according to the Motley Fool article, there are companies such as:
EOG Resources Inc. (EOG)
Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD)
Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP)
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)
MarkWest Energy Partners LP. (MWE)
Sunoco Inc. (SUN)
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL)
Calpine Corp. (CPN)
KBR Inc. (KBR)
LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)
Roper Industries Inc. (ROP)
Personally I also like to track a group of relatively small oil and gas related companies that I consider to be Bakken Oil Companies because of their concentration in that area. Since the Bakken contains a high concentration of high quality crude in addition to natural gas it has been a tremendously profitable play the past couple years and shows no sign of slowing down.
T Boone Pickens has been one of the driving forces behind the idea of converting the long haul trucking industry from diesel to compressed natural gas. This would take a lot of upward pressure out of the diesel market, which has been inflated for years by strong military and industrial demand.
Low natural gas prices and eliminating our need to import crude oil from the Middle East would be the two biggest steps the U.S. could take to get back on track to a more secure future. Since the government has been unwilling to provide any subsidies to encourage the conversion to Natural Gas let’s hope they at least don’t increase the regulatory burden. Right now, market forces are working and with no change in current policies the U.S. energy industry can lead us back to prosperity.